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Ukraine has been defending its homeland and freedom for 22 days now, with the rest of the world virtually involved in the war. Activation of mass media enabled bringing more clarity about the ongoing war in Ukraine to all parts of the world. It is obvious that the world has already shaped out the winner of this war and this is Ukraine.
The world is descent and radical in its actions. Since the beginning of the war, Russia has been subjected to unprecedentedly high-ranking and large-scale sanctions, and the process has not yet stopped.
All the said above created an expectation that sanctions would have rapid and devastating effects and the war would stop immediately. However, the reality showed up differently – though the imposed sanctions are disastrous for Russia, the war is still going on.
As defined by experts, the purpose of the sanctions is twofold - in the short run, they would cause an economic shock to Russia and lead to the awakening of Russian citizens by exposing them to terrible discomfort, while the citizens in their turn are supposed to force their government to step back.
In the long run, the sanctions aim to derail the Russian economy in order to completely tip the economic balance for an extended period of time, through reducing Russia’s military strengths as its key priority – distracting Russia’s military reinforcement, and killing the ambition of rebuilding the Soviet Union.
Let us see how did both of the above goals translate into the results: the Russian economy is already facing a technical default. According to Fitch (www.fitchratings.com), the risk of possible Russian default in 2022 constitutes 71%. Default is of technical nature as Russia cannot be able to meet its foreign liabilities promptly, not because of lack of finances (at this point) but because of its inability to manage its existing finances as the country's central bank accounts are frozen.
Russia has considered 175 billion of its reserve fund as a security cushion. Part of the money preserved in this fund is placed in the bonds of the countries that imposed sanctions on Russia, therefore, it is inaccessible. The rest part is kept in gold, while the current image of Russia makes finding its buyer in today's market almost unthinkable.
Russia, trying to maintain a spark of optimism at least within the country, started discussing the Ministry of Finance’s "smart plan", according to which certain new accounts will be set up to accumulate the sums required for the payment of debts in Rubles. Russia plans to address its "debtors" telling them that “the requested money is in place but it is in their national currency (though Rubles are not accepted anymore). The challenge is that if they want to receive it in other currency, then they need to unblock foreign currency accounts for Russia."
Experts of the Russian ‘Empire’ believe in this plan, while independent Russian experts, on the other hand, clearly realize that these tricks cannot help the country to avoid its nearing economic collapse. As the independent experts predict, the economic downturn is inevitable, where Russia's economic indicators may drop to that of the early 90s.
The sanctions have already born their short-term consequences in Russia - the production chains are broken; the manufacturers depending on imports of products from other countries have to stop or rush to find alternate suppliers. Reassembling the chain may take time but experts believe the sanctions will affect this process as well, and here’s why: If earlier, Russia could choose the most lucrative of several offers, now the reality has changed considering the new restrictions and the country is forced to choose whatever is accessible, while that option can be far more expensive. In supplement, each delayed or unsuccessful chain will lead to a drop in production and raise the unemployment in the country.
The long-term perspective looks even more hopeless for Russia. It is expected that after the end of the war, the sanctions will not be lifted for yet undetermined period of time though even in case they are lifted, the risks now exposed will be necessarily taken into account while planning any financial transactions. This, in turn, will hinder possible major investment or partnership opportunities.
As a result of the sanctions, any economic activity in Russia will become more expensive, and people will face more and more poverty. Certainly, such a prospect does not look attractive to those already anticipating the effects of sanctions.
This is why some Russian citizens decided not to lose time and immediately flee from the country, some trying to escape poverty and others to maintain their financial status.
According to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia - Vakhtang Gomelauri, up to 25,000 Russian citizens crossed the Georgian border in the last two weeks, of which 3,000 are still staying in the country.
Shortly after the start of the war, Levan Kiladze, the founder of one of the largest real estate platforms in Georgia (ss.ge), presented data stating that "the number of website visitors from Russia increased sharply after the start of the war in Ukraine." Furthermore, more than 300 companies owned by Russian citizens have officially registered in the National Agency of Public Registry of Georgia.
The following question arises: Why did Russian citizens decide to use Georgia as “an economic parking zone”, the country they are in a long-term conflict with (20% of Georgian territory is currently occupied by Russia). What is the reason? Could it be the effect of a position “not to join the sanctions” and the declared list of “non-friendly countries to Russia” (where Georgia is not listed)? With this in mind, could they get the impression that Georgia can serve as a cozy nest for Russian "migratory birds"?
We do not have a clear answer to this question, though we own the reliable data confirming that 7 out of 10 residents in Georgia assume that the flow of people wishing to move to Georgia from Russia will definitely increase.
According to the research, the biggest concern of the population is the possible prospects and plans of Russian citizens for staying in Georgia. In total, 70% of the population stands in favor of imposing at least one or more restrictions on Russian citizens with regard to entering the country.
The aforementioned cautious attitude seemingly formed within the country of Georgia is not accidental. Russia's actions push those civilized countries under the potential Russian threat, to be more cautious due to Russia’s habit to “track” Russian citizens living in other countries and, based on fake threats proposedly they are exposed to from the host country, invades the foreign country’s territory to “liberate” Russian citizens. Having said that, the authorities of many countries keep imposing cautious restrictions on Russian citizens, on one hand, for security reasons, and on the other hand, in order to avoid collaboration with the aggressor.
„At the moment, Russians are not much-desired guests here”, said the State Secretary for Asylum and Migration in Belgium – Sammy Mahdi, referring to the restriction of visas for Russian citizens, and called on the European Union to do the same.
Later on, the Baltic states - Estonia and Lithuania - also restricted tourist visas while as an exception, only those who travel to their relatives or for medical treatment are allowed.
The people of Georgia agree that the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries are effective. According to ACT poll, 70% of citizens consider these sanctions to be very or somewhat effective.
Believing in the effectiveness of sanctions and taking into account the impending threats, the population of Georgia demands protective mechanisms, specifically those allowing to impose more control over the property issues and strict filtering of inflows from Russia. International demand is to impose sharing sanctions which could become a clear signal coming from a country standing at the doorstep to EU membership.
Those who believe in the effectiveness of sanctions, keep in mind the old Chinese proverb - If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by. Let us remind you what the ACT survey shows: 84% of the Georgian population is well aware of who is expected to show up in the river.
"I want to get vaccinated because I'm afraid to die."
"I don’t want to be vaccinated because I am afraid I will die."
In fact, the whole difference between these two sentences is in one word, behind which is hidden a huge fear and a dark tunnel. This "no" means- to receive the vague, information-deprived fear and let it into you; recognizing people, who speak dogmas instead of sound arguments and emphasizing, that we put ourselves above the public good. On the one hand, there is nothing unusual in this, because man is a rational but selfish animal who once found the easiest way to survive by uniting in society. However, I wonder what can happen when being in a team no longer guarantees survival? Then he goes and starts watching alone from the cave. We have been watching the world from the "cave" (from homes, the Internet) for 2 years now, and periodically, separate opportunities to go out only intensify our natural desire - not to be alone and not to be locked up.
Registered cases of coronavirus have exceeded 200 million worldwide, with more than 4 million deaths. The spread of the virus is facilitated by 1) the gathering or socialization of people, 2) the disruption of distancing, or the attempt of people to be closer to others, 3) the rejection of vaccines, or the non-recognition of science, which is based on a collective mind and is smarter. According to the New York Times Coronavirus World Map, the blast of corona occurred most recently in six countries, including Georgia (Fiji, Botswana, Cuba, Georgia, Malaysia and Spain).
Source: NewYorkTimes
In order to survive, the virus undergoes constant mutation. At this point it is actively spreading as a delta variant, which is more contagious. Mitigating restrictions and resistance to Delta strain vaccination have led to a rapid increase in the number of people infected with the virus worldwide; Including in rich countries with high vaccination rates. However, the main effect of vaccination is to reduce the number of hospitalized patients who pass the disease at home in a relatively simple form after vaccination. This means easing the pressure on the healthcare system, which is a difficult challenge for rich countries and an almost insurmountable challenge for developing countries.
There are currently more than 4 billion doses of the vaccine registered worldwide, with an average of 55 doses per 100 people. Most rich countries have already been able to get full (double) vaccinations for an average of 80% of the population, while the rate for poorer countries is no more than 5%.
Source: NewYorkTimes
This world map counts the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the highest rate - 100 covid-infected, our country has. According to the data of August 14, Georgia is in the first place in the top ten of the world rankings with the spread of the disease, the dynamics of deaths is also high. From July onwards, the death toll rises daily or fluctuates above the upper average. In these statistics, Georgia has another negative indicator - only 5.7% of the population has been fully vaccinated, which ranks the country 113th (5.7%) in the overall ranking of double vaccination rates. The single vaccination rate is only 13%, while for European countries this figure has long exceeded 50%.
As early as June, before the US government donated half a million doses of Pfizer to the Georgian people as part of the Biden-Harris administration's global vaccination initiative, ACT conducted a study. According to the survey, every third (33%) of the surveyed Tbilisians were hesitant to get vaccinated, while 22% peremptorily said they would not get vaccinated. If we add to the above-mentioned ambiguity all the negative factors influencing the decision, which the respondents named, it becomes clear that the vaccination process is hindered by the lack of information. Against this background, there is a high degree of distortion of scarce information ("vaccination changes the genetic code", "causes infertility") or interpretation (vaccination is designed to "chip" the population, "5G technology is activated in humans after vaccination), which is experienced by most people.
One in three respondents who could not decide whether to get vaccinated cited a possible allergic reaction to the vaccine as the main reason for the rejection. Other impediments are again related to lack of information - the population a) worries about the quality of the vaccine imported into the country (28%), b) thinks that the vaccine will be harmful to his health (10%), or c) it can't protect/alleviate his condition when infected ( 7%).
More information about vaccination side effects - World statistics and degree of complications Increase in the number of people vaccinated and their observation, successful and recognized vaccines - As it turns out, Tbilisians pay attention to all these factors to make sure they need vaccination and expect information on these topics. , Those who are still thinking - whether to be vaccinated or not.
When filling the information vacuum, those in charge may take into account that most of those who hesitate to get vaccinated do not trust any source of information. A small number of them trust the World Health Organization, doctors / infectious disease specialists and the Ministry of Health of Georgia. Recommendations of relatives and acquaintances has a low rate, although it is slightly higher than the percentage of media and healthcare authorities. Understanding these data makes it clear that people need to receive official information from those responsible in this field and expect very specific explanations from them.
And those citizens who do not plan to be vaccinated in no case do not trust any source of information at all. In communicative language, this means that the stereotypical threshold is quite high and people block access to information themselves - every fourth respondent against the vaccine finds it difficult to name any specific, credible source of information; They also have low expectations of receiving information from officially responsible organizations or structures. However, this part of the respondents expresses the most trust in personal contacts and therefore, it is possible to work with them by activating this personal information field.
The fact is, that our country at this point stands out negatively in the overall ratings related to the corona. It means that something is not going right. Covid management consists of many components, however when we all rely on the main, human factor and the responsibility of each of us, then, the main tool of action again are the people, their involvement in the process and, consequently, the right communication with them.
If we listen to them and respond to the biggest fear in the world - the fear of loneliness, which we have been feeling for two years now, we can build a strategy based on the following points:
Talk to those who are complaining. The logic is simple, it is time to let go of those who categorically refuse and focus all our time and energy on people who are unable to make a decision for various reasons. In total, including these people we get to the necessary 60% that we need to defeat Corona
Use official data as a reliable source for them, and healthcare associates as communicators
Instead of appealing to the pros and cons of vaccination, focus on the knowledge of managing side effects and improving that knowledge.
We must activate the information campaign in the context of recognized vaccines
Increase communication with emotional parameters - give a promise to defeat the pandemic, return to normal life and get out of the cave, out of loneliness. Encourage people to feel - how they can take care of their personal health and well-being while at the same time protecting their closest people. Let's do all this so that we are not left alone again and again near the entrance of the "cave".
As long as the people in charge take care of this, you also have the leverage: if you want 2 years of loneliness to end soon, your share of the vaccine bullet must be fired right now. Even from the "cave".
Growth of informational technologies significantly affected human lifestyle who now daily performs operations in various directions by means of personal computer or telephone. It is important for us to have remote access to real time information and services – this simplifies movement, saves time, energy and money. Brands and companies try to respond to needs of consumer. In future strategies of companies their service or product definitely implies remote service too if not fully, but at least with physical sales as this acceleration makes business change communication algorithm with consumer, it is not enough anymore the consumer to go to the brand or vice versa, the brand to go to consumer with its offers, in compliance with modern challenges, when consumer moves, product he loves and needs moves along with him.
Remotely received service is eventually developing in Georgia. As we are getting used to standing in endless lines and checking quality of product or instructions on use at site, it is hard to adjust to psychological fact that in reality, companies are well-aware (based on current experience and observation) what to offer us, how to make amends or change our attitude if we are not satisfied. Main challenge companies face in terms of offering remote offer is the first try of consumer when he begins to realize benefits caused by saving time and receiving comfort, then the challenge is active involvement in his everyday life remotely. To this point, in our reality delivery companies and banking fields are the most successful in implementing this concept.
Daily renewable pace and needs of life results in increased requirements of the consumers towards banking field: convenience of working with the bank, quick access to bank service and promptness of service. In order to meet these requirements, bank needs to offer service and products in every single space where client expects it. Today, this is activation of remote service.
Imagine buying new shoes and leaving house in the morning thinking:
It is no longer enough for the client to receive this or that banking service – now clients are interested in the quality of terms of obtained service and most importantly time spent on receiving the said service. Nowadays banks offer quite a broad spectrum of remote services: internet and mobile banking, outdoor services (terminals, ATMs), telephone and video banking, you can use these services to pay bills, make necessary transfers, receive information on bank products or access to products such as deposit, loan, credit cards, etc. In order to perform each operation, you will need exactly that amount of time you can spare.
Clients find it more and more important to minimize live interaction with banks, to avoid lines and communication with operators and at the same time, to increase opportunity of using the fastest and most reliable partner – yourself; as in the concept of modern bank service, consumers know best during what part of the day, how fast and how simply and usefully they can perform bank operation they need.
Remote service acts as an alternative of the value of so called tear of shoes. Consumers no longer need to visit the bank – spend money for commuting and wasting time because in the world of technologies time is equivalent to money and each minute wasted on standing in line or waiting for operator is lost GEL or USD for consumer.
Bank representatives try not to fall behind consumers’ thoughts and transform along the way in terms of remote service. Beyond consumers’ interests, switching to remote service is important for banks as geographical expansion of bank branches cannot be unlimited. Together with accelerated development of technologies, banks try to come closer to client on the expense of technological achievements which is managed through remote methods of specific bank services; furthermore, technological development and switching clients to self-service reduces costs of banks in terms of human resources, this enables them to invest this financial resource in improvement of the said technologies and fast development and walk one step ahead to competitors.
For those banks which already started development of remote services, created and improved remote products and defined further improvement of remote service as a priority in strategy of upcoming years, this current crisis will accelerate multi-year strategic plan and minimize it to months, consumer will have to better learn how to use remote services under force-majeure and bank will try to make this learning and testing process simpler and user-friendly, exactly actively involved consumer will accelerate the development process.
As for those banks for which switching to remote service was future perspective, this situation will become a huge challenge. For example, banks that have special segment (age or social segment) will have to do it altogether – manage quick technological development and ensure development of consumer too, teach clients use of remote channels, this is a double objective but manageable and considering future tendencies, this is what will bring benefit for everyone in the end – for bank and for consumer.
As estimated by analysts of Juniper Research[i], as of 2018, 2 billion consumers had access to bank service by means of various gadgets: smartphone, tablet, PC or smart watch. Human life with global ambitions was localized to the specific gadgets, from the agenda saved in smartphone to information on persons that are part of network, from the specialist of specific field to alter-banker. As quality/desire of remote engagement is this high and establishment and implementation of innovative products is done through people (bank employees/clients), companies have to start big things in a simple way – by caring about “shoes” of service personnel and consumer – time, energy, money.
[i] https://www.juniperresearch.com/press/press-releases/digital-banking-users-to-reach-2-billion
Evolution progresses in spiral way, which means that the mankind moves forward and development stages repeat themselves or are very similar to each other. In 21st century, on the background of growing technological and personal development achievements, equipped with personal computer and smartphone, human had to lock himself in “the cave” again and this way, we temporarily stopped and only on expense of intellectual resource, kept developing the idea of inhabiting parallel planet to live. People hope to get routine everyday life back where one has breakfast in the morning, then heads over to work, then goes to café for lunch, from work to market, from market to home, from home to a bar and then makes breakfast again in the morning. Humans have been building this simple life chain for centuries, eventually developed it and now nobody wants to start over. Pieces of the chain are tightly connected and are independently operational units, small, medium and large business fields the majority of which are now in waiting mode. We were interested to find out whether the perception of social responsibility has changed in the crisis or not. We conducted in-depth interviews with representatives of companies of different size operating in Georgia, based on which we created the following anthropological picture of perceptions:
1. In own cave
Sense of danger and unclear situation outside, made human find a shelter in the cave and return back there every time as he already knew the way. Having a roof as an opportunity to protect from natural conditions and hide from outside threat, brought a human the feeling of getting used to own place – one specific environment and he found more or less calmness in this environment. People left alone because of the pandemic headed over to their homes – their forever and well-known cave. Corporations are managed from homes, so in the beginning of the crisis, companies used one of the topical, practically inevitable form of social responsibility – to “transfer” employees to their homes and made sure they stayed there. According to inquired respondents, they made the decision of terminating their work in real regime and switching employees to remote mode alongside the recommendations issued in the country. Quality of social responsibility is determined based on when the business implemented the said – when the relevant recommendations were issued or when the pandemic was already severely spread. But for now when every corporation whose work can be done remotely at least partially, tries to manage remote work of their employees in a way not to lose the sense of team work neither to decrease the interest towards work. This form of corporate responsibility is ultimately based on caring for health of one person and has various forms in various corporations – this could be social package of unified insurance developed in the crisis or equipping employees with protective items at home or organizing special trainings so that when performing work (signing agreements in old form) their health is maximally protected. The least company can do to this regard is to provide licensed version of Zoom meetings absolutely necessary for remote work so that employees can easily work from home.
2. The scene of hunting mammoths
After getting known with the cave and settling down in it, man started using this cave as a mean of communication. First historically proven ancient drawings on cave walls depicted what man saw and did beyond the cave. Man used to scrap mammoths on cave walls for two reasons – in order to classify (in simple form) i.e. to distinct mammoth from tiger and in order to share it for others. Depicting actions helped human to better plan hunting, have better perspective of animal anatomy, simple ways of hunting them, to do its job properly. To become a “professional” and then share this plan and knowledge with others so that others could hunt better too. In this context, revaluation of social responsibility is defined with the motif to save yourself, to continue work in future and to save neighbor companies as hunting is better together, chances are higher to hunt bigger animal and survive if attacked. As believed by inquired representatives of businesses, influence of international B2B corporate responsibility is eventually taking its position in Georgia. The majority of respondents representing large businesses emphasize importance of supporting quick development and sharing specific advices in crisis, necessity of which drastically changes in narrative of small business representatives. Respondents confirm the assumption that in this context, small and medium size business are most vulnerable, this is why social responsibility of large business is to offer them support. From Georgian reality, so far these are only a few examples such as support in establishment of e-commerce platform or providing consulting on business matters. Launch of ACT business consulting platform served exactly this purpose – to share our knowledge and experience to those who are in desperate need of our support now to survive in long-term perspective and to turn into large companies commissioning us after this crisis so that we hunt down mammoth together.
3. Shared bonfire
After discovering the fire, man started using it for different purposes. In order not to lose time for starting a fire every single time, he tried to have it on all the time. As together with people “making friends”, perimeter of the caves narrowed, fire appeared in the center of the caves and each member had the responsibility to keep the shared bonfire on. The most frequent and prevalent form of social responsibility is to contribute in this common bonfire, if we imagine that fire is country’s economy or common welfare, corporate responsibility of company is to support separate segments of the society around this common fire (to help vulnerable groups, to support sport or cultural activities). During Covid-19 crisis this had a form of creating unified platform of fight against pandemic and millions of GEL transferred to it. Corporations donated money for common welfare. In addition to this, in separate cases companies financially supported or if relevant to their field, provided their product (food, fuel) to National Center of Disease Control and Infectious Hospital as frontline units in fight against Coronavirus. As explained by companies selling construction and oil products, such purposeful use of money simplifies engagement in social responsibility activity and ensures them from making a mistake – define the most vulnerable group and its needs in this crisis. This form of CSR, similar to its symbolic face – fire, has an effect to spread, on one side, it sets an example for other corporations and motivates them to donate money to cope with the common enemy and on the other side, if we generalize on the example of the specific construction company, CSR can be implemented through such activities which could involve not only corporations but ordinary citizens while business would act as a mediator. For instance, if you purchase real estate under the promotion, part of the amount you pay will be transferred to Covid-19 fund.
4. Thigh bone
A student once asked famous American anthropologist Margaret Mead what she considered to be the first evidence of civilization. Among expected answers from scientific point of view student considered that Mead would say clay vessel, hunting tools or fire as a mean of communication, but anthropologist answered: a human thigh bone with a healed fracture found in an archeological site 15, 000 years old. This bone is the largest in human body, forms the hip joint which is absolutely necessary for a human to walk, if fractured, this bone needs average 4-6 months to heal. As explained by Mead, when an animal breaks a leg in wild nature, he dies because he cannot hunt for food, cannot move to escape from the attack, is unable to find water. Mead points out that healed femur fracture tells us that someone spent time and resources, took care of the person in need, healed him, brought him food and water, and protected or moved to a safer place before he was healed. This is where civilization starts – with healed femur fracture – with care for others.
Revalued perception of corporate responsibility which changed from simple one-time charity to taking care of employees, sharing knowledge and experience with others, and providing purposeful funding for activities oriented on common welfare, is eventually developing in Georgian reality, but we believe that first sign of civilization for social responsibility is corporate healed thigh bones – those employees whose jobs could be preserved and who will return to workplaces after the crisis is over because they were not abandoned in time of need and were taken care of; because exactly healed femur fractures will be counted after Coronavirus is over, this will be a measure of moral damage done by the pandemic beyond human lives and health and each of us will think about how many healed bones are on us.